NFL Week 1 Recap Home Dogs

[admin]

NFL Home Dogs barked loudly in Week 1
For football bettors that see value in underdogs playing at home, NFL Week 1 was most likely a profitable one. Home ‘dogs ended up covering five of their eight games. Even more impressive, all five covers also resulted in straight up victories. Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Washington all prevailed while getting points at home.

The opening point spreads at sportsbook for week two provide just three such opportunities: Detroit (+4) hosting Philadelphia, Washington (+3) entertaining Houston, and San Francisco (+5) welcoming New Orleans.

Home favorites went 5-2-1 ATS, 7-1 SU. The NY Jets were the only home team to lose SU. Chicago, a straight up winner but ATS loser, and Tampa Bay, who won SU but pushed, were the other two home favorites who failed to cover.

Last year’s bottom feeders ATS made positive impressions in week one. Detroit, worst in the NFL at 4-10-2 ATS in 2026, covered the number against Chicago and many believe they should have won the game outright based on the controversial incompletion call at the end of their heartbreaking loss to the Bears. Jacksonville, 5-11 ATS last year including 0-4 in their last four games, was an impressive ATS and SU winner over Denver, who was a respectable 9-7 ATS a season ago. Pittsburgh, 5-10-1 ATS last year when they failed to earn the opportunity to defend their Super Bowl title in the playoffs, knocked off Atlanta as a home underdog in week one. Seattle, tied for fourth worst last year ATS, may be gaining some believers under first-year head coach Pete Carroll after their resounding upset win over the well-regarded San Francisco 49ers. Last year in the college ranks, Carroll and USC were an uncharacteristic 4-9 ATS after three consecutive winning seasons ATS (8-5, 7-6, 7-6).

It was not the best of weekends for the six teams that represented the AFC in last year’s playoffs. New England and Baltimore both beat the spread and won their games, but Cincinnati, the Jets, Indianapolis and San Diego all lost both ATS and outright. Granted, the Bengals and Jets lost to fellow playoff teams in the Patriots and Ravens, respectively, but the two squads that were not facing a playoff participant from a year ago, the Colts and Chargers, failed to deliver as favorites.

NFC playoff teams from a year ago performed slightly better, going 3-3 both ATS and SU. Green Bay and New Orleans won ATS and outright over 2026 postseason alums Philly and Minnesota, respectively. While Arizona got the job done both ATS and SU against last year’s cellar dwelling St. Louis Rams, Dallas could not take care of its business on the road against rival Washington.

Divisionally speaking, no division went a perfect 4-for-4 ATS. The AFC South was the only division to go 3-1 ATS (also 3-1 SU), with the only loss coming in the intra-divisional matchup between Houston and Indianapolis. On the flip side, no division went 0-for-4 ATS, but the AFC West went 1-3 both ATS and SU, with the only win occurring in the intra-divisional clash between Kansas City and San Diego.

Whether you see value in home dogs or love to back favorites playing at home.