Reconstructing the Champ: Why Tito will defy the odds.
by: Steve Kelsey
Sports wagers can be tricky in any sport, but perhaps none more difficult than the world of professional MMA. We make our predications the same way fighters enter the ring: we study, we observe, we analyse and predict. Much like the fighter in the ring, our predictions and wagers can be rewarding, we see something no one else does and capitalize on the tiniest opportunity, the tiniest outside chance, and turn the study and preparation into victory. Conversely, the wrong analysis can leave us feeling defeated, and feeling either eager to fix our mistakes and return, or tuck tail and run.
Enter Tito Ortiz. One of the most dominant fighters of his era, Tito was left plagued with contract disputes, injuries and staggering accusations within his personal life which would leave many of us emotionally and physically crippled. Add into the mix that Tito had a 5 year run without a victory, and the making of a mixed martial arts tragedy could have been the easy prediction.
But not Tito. The determination and will he showed as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter drove him to seek out the best trainers, best surgeons and best rehabilitation specialists, and was rewarded with a stunning first round submission over the once highly coveted Ryan Bader. Tito entered the scrap against Bader as the underdog…the money line of +375 or 4.75 speaks to the perception of his chances. Bader was a paper nightmare for Tito: a bigger, stronger, younger wrestler with knockout power. But Tito capitalized on a hole in his opponent's game to earn what was only the second submission victory of his career.
The washed up, broken down champ people had imagined not only defied the odds, but did so by executing a textbook guillotine choke which shows a submission savvy missing in the early part of his career. The champ has been physically rebuilt through surgery…but has he also reconstructed his game? Remember, we are talking about the innovator of "ground and pound"…the man is no stranger to finding new ways to exploit and dominate his opponents.
In the upcoming bout against Rashad, Tito enters the fight with a current money line of +300 or 4.00 in decimals. Better odds against a former champ, who has been picked 18-8 by his peers to grind out a decision in the contest?
Majority of the pros who have picked Rashad see the fight going to a decision, and indeed both men have seen most of their fights go the distance. Odds say that this fight will go the distance, and Rashad will squeak out a decision. Indeed, Rashad has exhibited a raw athleticism that may give him a physical edge; but so did Bader. Rashad is a powerful wrestler who will be difficult for Tito to take down; but Bader is much bigger with equal wrestling cred. Rashad has knockout power and can finish on the feet; ditto Bader.
The intangible in this fight for me is the mentality each fighter will bring to the ring. Rashad is in a negative place, having ended his long time affiliation with the Greg Jackson camp, who many people credit as the architect of the game-plans he executed in his victories. He has seen his title shot go to bitter rival (Quinton Jackon), against his former friend and training partner (Jon Jones) due to a knee injury suffered at his new camp. Tito comes in riding the high of his reinvention, and reconstruction, on the back of a dominating victory against one of the UFC's hottest new prospects.
If there were ever a time to bet on the underdog, it's now. Look for Tito to defy the odds yet again and earn a decision against a frustrated and vulnerable Rashad.
Betting Pick: Tito takes the fight. Bet it online with Bodog Sportsbook
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